The price of cooling food may have helped moderate retail inflation to the lowest five months 6.7% in July, but there may be a reversal in August inflation molds thanks to concerns about the development of uneven monsorship through the state and other factors.

The increase in food prices has fallen to the lowest level since March 2022 at 6.75% in July, from 7.75% in June, and is seen as the main driver to carry consumer price inflation below 7% after a three -month spell. In recent weeks, the government has imposed sidewalks in external and internal food trading such as rice such as rice, Atta (wheat flour), and Dal (gram red) tour, which reflects the recognition of their surge prices.

Retail inflation averaged 7.28% in April to June 2022-23, and RBI, and in August, peeling the projection of the second quarter inflation (Q2) to 7.1% from 7.4%. However, the July mold of 6.7% will mean a higher price increase can be expected in August and September. The ranking of treatment expects inflation in Q2 to be “pretty much in line” with an estimated 7.1% RBI.Even when the overall food inflation was moderated in July, cereal inflation such as wheat and rice had risen to 6.90% due to their consistent price increase due to limited supply, the ranking of care was recorded, the head of the economist Rajani Sinha.

The basic effect of August 2021, when retail inflation is 5.3% compared to 5.6% a month earlier, it can also cause a slight increase in CPI reading. Another factor that can increase retail food prices is that August marks the first month of GST levies on non -branded and prominent food items that began on July 18.

With the beginning of the celebration season, we believe that food inflation must increase in August 2022 and we also see the risk of reverse to the price of food due to floods and uneven monsors,” Hitash Suvarna analyst at JM Financial, in the research record, said in a research note , Adding that the price of bathing has risen during the first half of August.

Essential Commodities Act was summoned on August 12 to take a strong action against tour traders who took “limited sales” so that it can increase the price. Two weeks later, exports of Atta, Maida (fine flour) and Rava (semolina wheat) are prohibited, quoting sharp surges in their global prices and the need to ensure overall food security in the country. Last week, the 20% export duty was imposed on rice exports to calm domestic prices even when the rice was sowed because of the uneven development of monsole in various parts of the country.

The head of the ICRA economist, Aditi Nayar reminded that the retail inflation rates August and September could be “slightly” higher than the 6.7% July due to the basic effects. While the edible oil, vegetables, and meat and fish inflation have dropped in July, fruits, eggs and cereals have recorded substantial upticks, he said.

Following the July Retail Inflation Data, the Ministry of Finance said that policy steps such as maintenance and calibration of the release of buffer stocks in the case of rice, pulses and onions, and export restrictions in wheat cases, are expected to continue to examine food inflation examinations. “In the absence of further shocks”, Inf