The new terra (Luna) collapse has been repeatedly chosen as the main source of weakness that affects crypto assets. However, it is far more likely that the combination of factors is behind the beginning of the bear market today.

At the same time that the market staggered from Terra Saga, the next two-year sign for half Bitcoin (BTC) was also crossed and this was a metric used by several analysts as indicators for the end of the Banteng Market.

As shown in the graph above, the previous cycle has seen BTC reached its peak followed by a decrease in price which first dropped below the average movement of 50-day (MA) then the peak capitulation event that pushed prices below the 200-day MA.

Many traders are thrown by the lack of peaks in the latest bull market cycle because this phenomenon usually marks the final stage of tired trends.

Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-aliran models after BTC failed to reach $ 100,000 before the end of 2021.

During the previous market cycle, BTC traded far above the S2F model at this stage in its development with variance models in positive. At present, variance models provide reading -0.86 while the price of BTC is far below the S2F line.

The lack of the peak of this explosion has encouraged some traders to support the previous call for a final price increase that will make BTC reach $ 100,000 before entering the expanded bear market, but it still needs to be seen.

Maybe the market will be the lowest in November?

While some are still valid for the last one Hoorah before the bear market really appears, a more pessimistic view predicts the decline in prices of the moon -month before the market reaches the bottom.

Based on the previous cycle, the low market comes around 13 months after the peak of the market, which will suggest the bottom around December this year if the current trend is valid.

This is further validated when looking at the time between the bottom of the market and the next half Bitcoin event.

During the previous cycle, each low cycle was hit about 17 to 18 months before the next half. The next half BTC is predicted to occur on May 5, 2024, which will show that the market will be the lowest in November or December 2022.

Traders are still permissive despite current price action

As far as price predictions run, there is far less consensus about this problem because BTC’s performance is lacking during the last cycle where most traders expect $ 100,000.

Traders continue to call for BTC to a number of $ 100,000 in the future that is not too far away and a handful of holding on the second $ 1 million target from behind.

The general range of the possible prices described by the Predictive Prediction device of the Lookintobitcoins shows the height of BTC $ 238,298, while the indicator of the Delta shows the highest $ 119,886. The current terminal price indicator provides price predictions at $ 107,801.